Early Fall Nor’easters for 2014…record Low temps on the way.

gfs_T2m_us_10

by WeatherFlow meteorologist Shea Gibson.

As we enter fall 2014, we are starting to see a colder-than-normal climate set in along the eastern half of the United States. Typically fall brings a mixed bag of cold air and winds with warm air masses still showing overall milder air temperatures as averages; however early snow and full scale Nor’easter events look to be showing up a bit early.

Here is a surface map of an impressive Low off the NE coast from October 23, 2014 where pressures dropped to between 992 -995 millibars.  This system was a slow mover to the NE and hung around for almost 3 days. Air temps dropped into the upper 40’s to low/mid 50’s for high’s.

SFC 10-23-14

 

One of the highest readings in the area from the initial surging came from Scituate, MA on the night of October 22, 2014. Our sensor there grabs a good clean fetch from the NNE/NE direction – and it topped out at 56kts – or 64.4 mph right around 9:40PM.

Scituate

Here are 3 gif’s Nullschool wind maps – notice how well developed this Low is from the surface all the way up to 34,000 feet (and even higher). Very impressive.

Surface wind .gif on Oct 23:

10-23 Noreaster

Higher up at 500hPa (18,000ft).   Winds are  ~110-130kts along the southern and southeastern portions.

10-23 Noreaster 500mb

And even higher at 250hPa (~34,000ft). That’s ~130-140kts along the southern and southeastern portions.

10-23 Noreaster 250mb

 

Even though this event did not produce wintry precipitation to the coastline, we have a wintry weather coastal Nor’easter lined up that most models are agreeing with developing off the ~SC/NC coast and quickly sliding up to the NE United States.

The GFS shows development starting further south off of SC and bending up into the New England coast and bombing out at 980 millibars (possibly even lower) over New Brunswick/Novia Scotia. Most of the wintry precipitation looks to be confined to the mountainous areas up and down the Appalachians and further north into Maine up into Canada. Possibly developing in the Ohio Valley as a Great Lakes Low drops into the mix to combine with the Coastal Low.

Notice the strong dome of High pressure wedging down into the center of the country and heading east…and at 1031 to 1033 millibars will surely create a strong gradient between these two systems for strong winds at the surface along the East Coast.

GFS 10-30-14 06z

 

FGS 10-29-14

 

The Euro is showing initial development further north off of NC with a wide dual-split of the Low pressure center before re-combining, weaker overall pressure (995mb’s) at peak strength and a slightly faster progression towards the NE.

12:00AM Saturday:

ECMWF 00z Sat

12:00AM Sunday:

ECMWF 10-30-14

 

12:00AM Monday:

ECMWF 00z Mon

The outlook is for record low air temperatures to extend all the way down into Florida in the 30’s.

Air Temps

 

So all-in-all, the report released by NOAA for the winter outlook for 2014-2015 shows some interesting pattern for the Deep South and SE Region – higher than average precipitation and lower than average air temps. Looks like we’re getting somewhat of an early start!

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html

Posted in Coastal South Carolina

Understanding Baja winds

The Baja Peninsula is 760 miles long with a backbone of rugged mountains Baja Relief Mapextending its entire length.

The only areas with dense populations are the extreme north and south ends.

On the eastern side is the warm to hot Sea of Cortez. On the western side is the cold to moderate Pacific Ocean.

Baja winter winds are a combo of 3 winds

1. Local sea breezes (these are typically only 6-14 knots)

 

2. + El Norte winds (These winds range from 10 to 30 knots)

3. Combo of Local sea breezes & El Norte winds. (Most common and range from 16 to 40+ knots)

4. North Pacific High’s surface NW winds. (These winds add a gust/shift factor and push the El Norte wind away from shore.

BajaHP4corners

BajaClassic El Norte

Baja wind Presentation

Effect of the North Pacific High’s surface NW winds on the El Norte windsUnderstanding Baja winds

Posted in Baja Guide

Gravity Waves over New Hampshire/Vermont

gw's2

by WeatherFlow meteorologist Shea Gibson.

October 15, 2014 proved to be an interesting setup over the central United States and Ohio Valley region. We had a significantly tight dipping of the jet stream from Canada down to Florida and back up – also known as a Rossby Wave.  A closed upper level Low was caught in the dip and was occluding with pressure around 1000-1008 millibars with fluctuations until the majority of the frontal activity was ripped away and pulled eastward. One of the visible results from this activity was “Gravity Waves”, which are a unique and interesting cloud pattern developed from an inversion of the atmosphere where air warms instead of cools as it ascends. The environment for Gravity Waves is favorable when a warm stable layer forms where warmer air rides along a quasi-atmospheric river of sorts – particularly in the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (or UTLS Region).  The clouds become visible as water vapor saturates in the areas where air is ascending – becoming a more buoyant stratified fluid and appearing as ripples.  In this case, the ripples remained for quite some time and appeared stationary as convective outflow from the south pushed cloud tops to the north from the Troposphere up into the Stratosphere.

First let’s take a look at the 300mb (~30,000ft. up) polar jet stream showing the Rossby (tight dip southwards in the jet stream) for a 2 day run. We can guestimate about ~100-120kt winds up at that height:

October 15th – 16th

Jet Stream 300mb 10-15-14

 

 Now let’s take a quick peek at the surface maps:

sfcmap (2)

10-15-14viz1245utc

So looking again at the surface map, here is what is going on:

Gravity Waves 10-15-14

Here are the key elements for Gravity Waves to form – as discussed by Frank Azheimer with the US National Weather Service, Charleston WFO.

NWS GW

 So when we break it down we have:

1. A well edged and well defined upper level trough to the west – present

2. A strong jet stream on the eastern side of the trough  – present

3. Occured between the inflection point of trough to the west and ridge axis to the east –  present

4. Occurrence north of warm front activity extending east ahead of Low – somewhat present extending just east along Canada/US border  (upstream warm air and moisture suffices for the warm front activity)

Here is a visual:

gw's2

 

Here you can see the ripples form and remain stationary while the rest of the activity streamed north and east.  Land features such as the Adirondack Mountains also assisted with this. Some of this rippling you can even see extending up into the northern Maine and New Brunswick areas just near the end of this loop.

(The “H”‘s in this GIF are supposed to be “L”‘s for Low pressures – seems there was a technical issue that day with the NOAA GOES site).

GW's 10-15-14

 

Even though they look a little more impressive from satellite view from overhead, they still look unique from the ground. Here are some examples:

GravityWave

gravityWavesMid03

 

wave_clouds2

 

 

 

 

GravityWMaaletHaHamisha

 

gravity-wave-300x224

 

And this one was another event up in the Northeast United States, where the region systematically encounters multiple fronts converging ahead of dips in the polar jet – especially in the cooler months. Might be something to look for any time we see a Rossby Wave bulging southwards into the United States.

NE_gravity_waves.psd

 

Other cool ones, including waves in the wake of the mountain tops of the Sandwich Islands and an arc’ing of waves off the coast of California…

wave_clouds1

 

010930_BAJA_VIS_20a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Massachusetts North Coast

Autumn, geese and North Pacific High depart to the south.

NW winds fade on the California coast.NPHautum

by Mike Godsey

Its that time of year. The average location of the NPH drops south of the Bay Area and focuses west of the Southern California coast. And in the coming weeks the NPH will continue to shrink and move further south. Sometimes it will move towards the Baja Coast other times it will abandon the entire west coast. Today in this video we can see the NPH shoved south of the Bay Area by a storm system passing to the north.

Posted in Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco

North Pacific High takes refuge in winter vacation home.

San Carlos, Baja Norte is center of the wind universe.SanCarlosNWbaySW

by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com

Ever wondered where the North Pacific High goes to when it abandons the California coast in late fall? Sometimes it just disappears from the pacific but more often it moves closer to the equator. And at times it lurks near its winter vacation home just west of Baja. And on those day Punta San Carlos has great wave sailing.

In this animation you can see most of the Pacific is a mess is you are looking for quality wind. The Bay Area is preparing for weak southerly storm winds. Hawaii is bracing for hurricane Ana. And there just west of Baja sits “our” North Pacific High creating NW winds for the hardy souls camped on the bluff enjoying perfect side offshore wave sailing.

Posted in Columbia River Gorge, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco

Battered North Pacific High sulks west of Southern California and Baja

So NW clearing winds between storms.StormTinyNPH

by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com

As you know the waters between California and Hawaii are dominated by the clockwise winds of the North Pacific High most of the summer. But as winter approaches huge counter-clockwise spinning storm systems like the one you see in this video shove the NPH far to the south. And in this case hurricane Ana has taken over the southern parts of the North Pacific High’s home waters.

This time of the near the ITCZ which gives birth to the North Pacific High is also moving southward so the average location of the North Pacific High keeps moving to the south even as the North Pacific High weakens.

Oh…. you are wondering what the heck ITCZ means? Google it and next spring, when the ITCZ moves northward and the NPH moves towards California I will do a blog on it.

Posted in San Francisco

Hawaii and hurricane Ana…

HurricaneAnnaTodayTrade winds

give way to

Hurricane winds.HurricaneNearHawaii 

by Mike Godsey,

Hurricane Ana currently a modest hurricane SW of Hawaii should have at least 75 knot winds by this weekend. And it’s modeled trajectory has it coming right over Maui.

The first video shows Ana’s current location while the second video shows Ana’s modeled location on Oct, 18.

When hurricanes are near land or currents like the Gulf Stream the models lose accuracy but over the open ocean they are pretty accurate so if you are kiting or windsurfing the North Pacific High’s trade winds today get ready for smaller gear by Sunday. Probably GUSTY UP AND DOWN winds…..

Posted in Columbia River Gorge, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco

Watch North Pacific High retreat in the face of a wintry storm system.

NPH’s wind turn from NW to NNW and Bay Area winds weaken. Then southerly storm winds.NPHretreatsStrom

by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com

At the beginning of the video  notice the date of Oct 11 and how the North Pacific High dominates the lower 2/3 of the screen creating NW wind on the California coast. Then abruptly as the date changes to Oct. 12 a storm system drops from the Gulf of Alaska and the North Pacific High retreats southward. Notice as this happens how the Northern California coast winds switch from the typical summer NW wind to unfavorable NNW winds that are much less likely to  make it into the Bay Area. And by Tuesday Oct. 13 those weak southerly storm winds will begin to come over the Bay Area.

Posted in San Francisco

To the west Super Typhoon Vongfong, to the east the North Pacific High

We tend to think that strong things come in big packages but…Typhoon

by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com

Looking to the east in this video from Oct. 11, 2014 notice the North Pacific High. The NPH spans well over 3000 miles from the Oregon Border to pass Hawaii. But its clockwise spinning winds are maxing out at about 25 knots. To the west find Super Typhoon Vongfong. This storm spans several hundred miles buts its counter-clockwise spinning winds are averaging 150 knots with gusts far stronger. This is a huge storm larger than the state of Texas but it is tiny compared to the NPH. But far stronger!

Posted in Columbia River Gorge, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco

North Pacific High winds build on coast. But…

Inbound storm poised to bring an end to NW coast winds

by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com

NPH+inboundStrom

Posted in San Francisco