by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com

Do you like gambles? So here is a big meteorological gamble. Today Dec. 1, 2019, I am forecasting a big El Norte winds event for the entire Sea of Cortez for Monday, Dec. 16. Normally I would not stick my neck out so far but this is a major event and the upper-level steering winds seem promising. I could be a day or so off on this forecast. And, as always, we need good sunshine in the inland valleys to create the local pressure gradient to suck those El Norte winds reliably to shore. But my bet is still there are strong winds.

Why? Follow this animated graphic carefully a few times and you will see the recipe for a big El Norte blow.

1. Note the isobars around the North Pacific High and the NW winds it is creating near the California coast.

2. Notice how there is low pressure in the Great Basin so there are few isobars near Baja’s Sea of Cortez

3. This produces very WEAK large scale winds for La Ventana and Los Barriles. There may be weak local sea breezes as the inland valleys heat.

4. Next is a critical step. Watch as a lobe of high pressure extends from the North Pacific High towards the Great Basin and

5. Watch the high-pressure move into the Great Basin as it enlarges steadily.

6. Notice how the low pressure exits to the east.

7. Now watch the Great Basin high pressure become stronger with more isobars moving towards Baja.

8. Watch isobars stack up over the Sea of Cortez

9. Watch El Norte winds fill in down the Sea of Cortez towards La Ventana

10. With high pressure ruling the Great Basin and 4 corners we see several days of El Norte winds if the clouds over Baja’s East Cape are not too thick.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com

If the cloud band you see in this animation keep moving towards La Ventana it could spoil winds today.

All models have the clouds only reaching near La Paz today but watching the satellite imagery it looks to me that they might get further south.

So watch the skies to the north and if you see thicker clouds be ready for a forecast bust. Below is the Loreto cam image at 12:10 PM today

by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com

Sometimes you will notice a caveat in the forecast that a band of high clouds streaming from SW or WSW may come over us and spoil the wind but stopping the inland valleys from heating weakening the local pressure gradient.

Usually when I mention clouds I am talking about low-level clouds that are often extremely difficult to forecast so I will use weasel words like “Upper-teens winds IF the clouds do not block heating in the inland valleys” Since these clouds form locally or nearby they often develop and move over the valleys after the forecast is published.

Whereas, when I am talking about the higher clouds of the subtropical jetstream I am much more confident about their impact on the winds.   This is because these clouds are in a narrow band extending for hundreds of miles and their location later in the day is far easier to gauge.

This animation of the satellite imagery for Dec. 4, 2019, shows these clouds of the jet completely missing La Ventana and Los Barriles today. Hence the upper-teens or stronger winds.

Now, Thursday Dec. 5, those clouds are much closer to La Ventana making the mid to upper-teens forecast iffy since these clouds may kill the pressure gradient to the inland valleys.

by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com

With a bit of luck and a Cut-Off Low that behaves according to the models we see a 3-5 day El Norte blow for La Ventana and Los Barriles, Baja Sur.

This graphic for Saturday Nov. 30, 2019, shows the setup.

1. First, notice the huge storm over the mid-USA. This low-pressure system, that brought crazy winds, rain and snow to much of the west coast a few days ago is now tracking eastward.

2. Now note the second large storm out in the Pacific just off the west coast of the USA. Normally this storm would bring a day or two of stormy weather to the west coast and then move into the Great Basin displacing the El Norte wind creating high pressure located there. But far above this surface storm at ≈ 18,000 ft. is a near Cut-Off Low that is mostly disconnected from the upper winds that steer weather systems from west to east. This means this surface storm is likely to just loiter off the west coast for a few days.

3. Check out the small high pressure area in the Great Basin. This high pressure should cause El Norte winds today that augment the La Ventana local sea breezes today.

4. Notice the isobars extending from that high pressure. The closer those isobars are to each other the stronger the pressure gradient making for stronger winds.

4. This is creating the El Norte winds indicated in green in the Sea of Cortez. If that Cut-Off Low above storm#1 holds station while storm #2 departs eastward then the high pressure#3 can stay over the Great Basin and we see days of El Norte winds.

 

 

by Meteorologist, Kerry Challoner Anderson

The media is talking about a “Bomb Cyclone” on the West Coast.  Does this mean imminent destruction?  View the following presentation for more info on this very interesting storm and how it relates to all the eddies we had this past summer.

https://spark.adobe.com/page/kya0DDY4Zytm3/

by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com

After having a near miss from a tropical storm and receiving heavy rain Baja’s East Cape is now in a wind drought. But this model animation suggests that the low pressure over the western USA will depart eastward later this week and El Norte winds build.

Watching the animation first find La Ventana and Los Barriles. Then note the time stamp at the bottom. Notice the huge low pressure over the western USA and the strong southerly storm winds off the California coast.

Now check out the weak southerly wind in the Sea of Cortez. All this southerly wind is created by that huge low pressure system.

Now check out the isobars of the equally huge North Pacific High way out in the Pacific. Remember that the closer the white isobar lines are to each other the stronger the pressure gradient and the resulting wind.

Now watch as the North Pacific High moves eastward and helps form a high-pressure area near the 4 corners where all the square states meet.

Notice how  this cause the isobars over Baja’s Sea of Cortez to stack up. The green to yellow color shows the building El Norte winds. Now all we need is lots of sunshine in the Baja’s East Capes inland valleys to suck those winds to the beaches and create local sea breezes to augment the El Norte winds.

by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the approaching low pressure storm to a Tropical Storm named Raynond.

 

 

Below is an animation of ECMWF model of the storm’s trajectory as well is a summary of all the latest model forecasts for trajectory and wind velocity.

 

 

Note that there is great variation since this is a part of the ocean with sparse data for the models to work with.

by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com

Since I wrote this blog yesterday all the models have agreed that the storm is likely to impact Baja’s East Cape.

Ever wondered why do you see really vague forecasts like this Baja Forecast today?

“Some models have is just wobbling around south of Los Cabos and dying. But the ECMWF European models, which does a very good job on storms, has the unnamed storm coming close enough to Cabo to send significant rain to Baja’s East Cape especially in the mountains.

If this happens we could see GUSTY SE winds to the mid 20’s and significant rain especially towards Los Barriles. If you are camped in an arroyo be ready to move fast and follow the forecasts carefully. Remember that even if it does not rain on the coast heavy rain in the mountains can send a sudden mass of water down arroyos.”

This animation shows how radically different the GFS and ECMWF forecasts are for the next few day regarding this tropical storm.

 

by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com


Here is yesterday’s blog about this storm

This blog tells why the storm forecast was so iffy earlier in the week

This animation show todays imagery of the storm at dawn Thursday, Nov. 14, 2019.

As you can see there is a hint of it developing a circular rotation but so far it looks very unlikely to become a hurricane. Still, there is significant rain and winds in this system. Some models have is just wobbling around south of Los Cabos and dying. But the ECMWF European models, which does a very good job on storms, has the unnamed storm coming close enough to Cabo to send significant rain to Baja’s East Cape especially in the mountains.

If this happens we could see GUSTY SE winds to the mid 20’s and significant rain especially towards Los Barriles. If you are camped in an arroyo be ready to move fast and follow the forecasts carefully. Remember that even if it does not rain on the coast heavy rain in the mountains can send a sudden mass of water down arroyos.

(INVEST name means this storm is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for the potential for future development. The NHC is a close partner of our company since we run the hurricane sensor network for them: https://weatherflow.com/professional-services/weather-networks/custom-designed-mesonets/the-weatherflow-hurricane-network/

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