13 June 2021 – As we head into out 2021 hurricane season, we are seeing a couple of area of interest. One is in the Bay of Campeche and is expected to be very slow to aggregate over the coming days; however, the NHC (as of 2PM ET today) gives it a 30% chance to develop next 48hrs and 50% chance next 5 days.
This is an expected area of development as energy crosses the western Caribbean and spins up in that environment.
However, this is also a time of the year when we really start to watch the SE and Gulf Coast areas for Low pressures that ride along old fronts and boundaries and push out over warm, sustainable sea surface temps. These Lows can at times become potential candidates for “homegrown” tropical systems – especially if High pressure it situated to the north to give it them top spin over water. Hurricane Arthur in 2014 was a great example of this to occur where the NHC even circled the developing area before it exited eastern NC and out over the Atlantic (drifted pretty far south before ramping up back to the north to hit the very area it originally exited).
So getting to my point here: Last night and into this morning, a backdoor front sagged down into SC and Low pressure developed in the southern-most pocket. After a significant rainfall event along the SC/GA coasts, this Low then wobbled east out over the Atlantic along its associated front. Some surface rotation was slightly noticeable, but not well defined this morning.
Prior guidance from the EURO ensemble showed a high 90-100% chance for at least a depression in the 00z run for 6/13.
The NHC took a little while to circle it as it could have fallen apart before reaching the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. As of the 2PM ET update, the chances are low at 10% next 48hrs and 20% next 5 days.
SST’s along the shelf waters are now upper 70’s to low 80’s, but the central thermohaline current of the Gulf Stream is warmer in the 81-84 degree ranges. Ripe for tropical systems.
But it does take quote a few ingredients for TC (tropical cyclone development)…and it has upper shear ahead of it as it eventually drifts northeast along its frontal regime. Here it is in place as of 5:40PM ET.
Also the area of High to the north has weakened while expanding east – not a very ideal setup. It really takes a stronger High stop the Low to really ramp things up. The old saying goes “Ridge over troubled waters”.
And the EURO since dropped their percentages to 40-50% as of the 12z ensemble run.
All-in-all, we do not expect much from this area of interest, but we shall see what occurs over the Gulf Stream where it now resides. It may actually pick up a bit of convection and obtain tropical characteristics.
To conclude, we will be watching this system and any other area of Low pressure that develop inland and wobble out over the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. These can be tricky and spin up rather quickly, so always remain tuned in to the trusted sources who can in many cases see these coming. We at WeatherFlow will always make mentions of the possibilities on our Pro Forecasts and our various outreaches. Stay safe and stay informed!
Sources: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ , https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/, https://www.weatherbell.com/ … and our own WeatherFlow products.