by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
Many years ago I spent 3 months per year doing underwater research on Pomacentrids around the islands of the Sea of Cortez. One thing that always struck me was how incredibly fast the weather could go from calm to strong winds.
The next 24 hours will brings such a change as this you can see in this graphic:
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
Take at this Baja California forecast valid for Thu, Dec 12 2019
Once again our ikitesurf.com sensor network and the ASCAT satellite imagery show continued El Norte winds coming down the Sea of Cortez. Unlike a typical El Norte these winds are from 3 sources: 1. NNE winds from the North Pacific Hig, 2. ENE winds at 1000 feet aloft that may sometimes transfer energy to the surface as gusts and shifts. 3. Weak high pressure in the Great Basin. Plus, of course, our mild local sea breezes. All this suggests gusty shifty winds which may be aggravated by the low-level clouds curving into the El Sargento mountains. Gusty upper-teens to around for Baja’s East Cape with fewer clouds than yesterday.
Why was the forecast for such GUSTY winds?
First looking at the model streamlines for today on the left side of this animation. It looks a great day. Note the very strong El Norte winds north of La Pacific and a bit weaker for Los Barriles to the south and weaker yet for La Ventana. But still, who is going to complain about upper-teens to weak low 20’s winds.
But now look at the 2 wind graphs from our sensors in the area. Notice how jagged the graphs are indicating gusty winds near the shore. Once you got a bit outside the wind quality went way up.
Today the cause of that gustiness is largely the cloud build-up you see in the mountains N. of El Sargento and in the Los Planes Valley. The day was not anywhere near as bad as recent days but it was still not the rock study winds La Ventana used to be famous for years ago.
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
Do you like gambles? So here is a big meteorological gamble. Today Dec. 1, 2019, I am forecasting a big El Norte winds event for the entire Sea of Cortez for Monday, Dec. 16. Normally I would not stick my neck out so far but this is a major event and the upper-level steering winds seem promising. I could be a day or so off on this forecast. And, as always, we need good sunshine in the inland valleys to create the local pressure gradient to suck those El Norte winds reliably to shore. But my bet is still there are strong winds.
Why? Follow this animated graphic carefully a few times and you will see the recipe for a big El Norte blow.
1. Note the isobars around the North Pacific High and the NW winds it is creating near the California coast.
2. Notice how there is low pressure in the Great Basin so there are few isobars near Baja’s Sea of Cortez 
3. This produces very WEAK large scale winds for La Ventana and Los Barriles. There may be weak local sea breezes as the inland valleys heat.
4. Next is a critical step. Watch as a lobe of high pressure extends from the North Pacific High towards the Great Basin and
5. Watch the high-pressure move into the Great Basin as it enlarges steadily.
6. Notice how the low pressure exits to the east.
7. Now watch the Great Basin high pressure become stronger with more isobars moving towards Baja.
8. Watch isobars stack up over the Sea of Cortez
9. Watch El Norte winds fill in down the Sea of Cortez towards La Ventana
10. With high pressure ruling the Great Basin and 4 corners we see several days of El Norte winds if the clouds over Baja’s East Cape are not too thick.
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
If the cloud band you see in this animation keep moving towards La Ventana it could spoil winds today.
All models have the clouds only reaching near La Paz today but watching the satellite imagery it looks to me that they might get further south.
So watch the skies to the north and if you see thicker clouds be ready for a forecast bust. Below is the Loreto cam image at 12:10 PM today
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
Sometimes you will notice a caveat in the forecast that a band of high clouds streaming from SW or WSW may come over us and spoil the wind but stopping the inland valleys from heating weakening the local pressure gradient.
Usually when I mention clouds I am talking about low-level clouds that are often extremely difficult to forecast so I will use weasel words like “Upper-teens winds IF the clouds do not block heating in the inland valleys” Since these clouds form locally or nearby they often develop and move over the valleys after the forecast is published.
Whereas, when I am talking about the higher clouds of the subtropical jetstream I am much more confident about their impact on the winds. This is because these clouds are in a narrow band extending for hundreds of miles and their location later in the day is far easier to gauge.
This animation of the satellite imagery for Dec. 4, 2019, shows these clouds of the jet completely missing La Ventana and Los Barriles today. Hence the upper-teens or stronger winds.
Now, Thursday Dec. 5, those clouds are much closer to La Ventana making the mid to upper-teens forecast iffy since these clouds may kill the pressure gradient to the inland valleys.
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
With a bit of luck and a Cut-Off Low that behaves according to the models we see a 3-5 day El Norte blow for La Ventana and Los Barriles, Baja Sur.
This graphic for Saturday Nov. 30, 2019, shows the setup.
1. First, notice the huge storm over the mid-USA. This low-pressure system, that brought crazy winds, rain and snow to much of the west coast a few days ago is now tracking eastward.
2. Now note the second large storm out in the Pacific just off the west coast of the USA. Normally this storm would bring a day or two of stormy weather to the west coast and then move into the Great Basin displacing the El Norte wind creating high pressure located there. But far above this surface storm at ≈ 18,000 ft. is a near Cut-Off Low that is mostly disconnected from the upper winds that steer weather systems from west to east. This means this surface storm is likely to just loiter off the west coast for a few days.
3. Check out the small high pressure area in the Great Basin. This high pressure should cause El Norte winds today that augment the La Ventana local sea breezes today.
4. Notice the isobars extending from that high pressure. The closer those isobars are to each other the stronger the pressure gradient making for stronger winds.
4. This is creating the El Norte winds indicated in green in the Sea of Cortez. If that Cut-Off Low above storm#1 holds station while storm #2 departs eastward then the high pressure#3 can stay over the Great Basin and we see days of El Norte winds.
by Meteorologist, Kerry Challoner Anderson
The media is talking about a “Bomb Cyclone” on the West Coast. Does this mean imminent destruction? View the following presentation for more info on this very interesting storm and how it relates to all the eddies we had this past summer.
by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com
After having a near miss from a tropical storm and receiving heavy rain Baja’s East Cape is now in a wind drought. But this model animation suggests that the low pressure over the western USA will depart eastward later this week and El Norte winds build.
Watching the animation first find La Ventana and Los Barriles. Then note the time stamp at the bottom. 
Notice the huge low pressure over the western USA and the strong southerly storm winds off the California coast.
Now check out the weak southerly wind in the Sea of Cortez. All this southerly wind is created by that huge low pressure system.
Now check out the isobars of the equally huge North Pacific High way out in the Pacific. Remember that the closer the white isobar lines are to each other the stronger the pressure gradient and the resulting wind.
Now watch as the North Pacific High moves eastward and helps form a high-pressure area near the 4 corners where all the square states meet.
Notice how this cause the isobars over Baja’s Sea of Cortez to stack up. The green to yellow color shows the building El Norte winds. Now all we need is lots of sunshine in the Baja’s East Capes inland valleys to suck those winds to the beaches and create local sea breezes to augment the El Norte winds.
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the approaching low pressure storm to a Tropical Storm named Raynond.
Below is an animation of ECMWF model of the storm’s trajectory as well is a summary of all the latest model forecasts for trajectory and wind velocity.
Note that there is great variation since this is a part of the ocean with sparse data for the models to work with.
by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com
Since I wrote this blog yesterday all the models have agreed that the storm is likely to impact Baja’s East Cape.
Ever wondered why do you see really vague forecasts like this Baja Forecast today?
“Some models have is just wobbling around south of Los Cabos and dying. But the ECMWF European models, which does a very good job on storms, has the unnamed storm coming close enough to Cabo to send significant rain to Baja’s East Cape especially in the mountains.
If this happens we could see GUSTY SE winds to the mid 20’s and significant rain especially towards Los Barriles. If you are camped in an arroyo be ready to move fast and follow the forecasts carefully. Remember that even if it does not rain on the coast heavy rain in the mountains can send a sudden mass of water down arroyos.”
This animation shows how radically different the GFS and ECMWF forecasts are for the next few day regarding this tropical storm.