The winter 2019-2021 season in Baja was atypical in a number of ways.
It started off with a bang in November but from that point on the winds were often unreliable unless you were on foils or big kites or sail. Or if you were there during one of the few strong wind periods.
But the main anomaly was the source of the northerly winds. Typically much of the wind comes from high pressure in the Great Basin or ideally 4 corners area of the western USA. This wind streams towards the persistent low pressure trough south of Baja. Then this N to NNE winds curves into the beaches at places like La Ventana and Los Barriles that have a warm valley inland.
But often this year the Great Basin was devoid of high pressure so we often lost that wind machine. But weirdly the North Pacific High as unusually large and atypically in a more northern location much of this winter. And this often brought solid NW wind to Baja’s Pacific side and NNW winds to the Sea of Cortez.
Unfortunately, NNW winds are at a more unfavorable angle to the La Ventana and Los Barriles and especially the El Sargento beaches. Plus some of this wind can is west enough to come down the arroyos creating weak offshore W. winds at the beaches making for unreliable wind inside. Still, any wind was welcome this season and we became to learn the routine: Strong NW wind on the Pacific side of Baja means somewhat unreliable but welcome wind for the El Sargento to Los Barriles corridor. 
Until….. it doesn’t. If the models are right later this week a resurgent North Pacific High brings strong NW winds to Southern California and the entire Pacific side of Baja.
Looking at this animation you can see the North Pacific High and those strong NW winds. But notice how weak the winds are in the Sea of Cortez.
Now notice the huge low pressure in the Great Basin. This is the area where we need HIGH PRESSURE to created classic El Norte winds for Baja.
Now notice how the North Pacific High curve towards the Great Basin low pressure rather than building down the length of the Sea of Cortez. Hence the exception to rule about NW wind on Baja’s Pacific side and a windy Sea of Cortez for the El Sargento to Los Barriles corridor.
by Mike Godsey
In normal years the bulk of the strong wind at the kite and windsurf sites in the Los Barriles and La Ventana areas comes from high pressure in the Great Basin area of the USA. However, the 2019-2020 winter season has seen lots of days when an unusually robust North Pacific High (NPH) has sent strong NNW winds down the Sea of Cortez.
The NNW angle of this NPH wind is not ideal for reliable wind at the beach but if there is good inland valley heating this wind does curve into the beaches.
But sometimes this season both the North Pacific High and the high pressure in the Great Basin have either been absent or too far away to help the Baja Sur winds.
Typically when this happens and we have blue skies we see kiteable mid to upper-teens winds from the local sea breeze as the inland valleys heat. These winds usually are strongest in the Rasta Beach area north of El Sargento and weaker for the La Ventana beaches and weaker yet for Los Barriles.
But there is another wind machine in our area that can ally with the local sea breezes to brings upper-teens to about 20 winds to the area. And that is the thermal trough just south of Baja’s East Cape.
Let’s look at today, February 21, 2020 as an example of this pattern.
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
Many years ago I spent 3 months per year doing underwater research on Pomacentrids around the islands of the Sea of Cortez. One thing that always struck me was how incredibly fast the weather could go from calm to strong winds.
The next 24 hours will brings such a change as this you can see in this graphic:
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
Do you like gambles? So here is a big meteorological gamble. Today Dec. 1, 2019, I am forecasting a big El Norte winds event for the entire Sea of Cortez for Monday, Dec. 16. Normally I would not stick my neck out so far but this is a major event and the upper-level steering winds seem promising. I could be a day or so off on this forecast. And, as always, we need good sunshine in the inland valleys to create the local pressure gradient to suck those El Norte winds reliably to shore. But my bet is still there are strong winds.
Why? Follow this animated graphic carefully a few times and you will see the recipe for a big El Norte blow.
1. Note the isobars around the North Pacific High and the NW winds it is creating near the California coast.
2. Notice how there is low pressure in the Great Basin so there are few isobars near Baja’s Sea of Cortez 
3. This produces very WEAK large scale winds for La Ventana and Los Barriles. There may be weak local sea breezes as the inland valleys heat.
4. Next is a critical step. Watch as a lobe of high pressure extends from the North Pacific High towards the Great Basin and
5. Watch the high-pressure move into the Great Basin as it enlarges steadily.
6. Notice how the low pressure exits to the east.
7. Now watch the Great Basin high pressure become stronger with more isobars moving towards Baja.
8. Watch isobars stack up over the Sea of Cortez
9. Watch El Norte winds fill in down the Sea of Cortez towards La Ventana
10. With high pressure ruling the Great Basin and 4 corners we see several days of El Norte winds if the clouds over Baja’s East Cape are not too thick.
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
Sometimes you will notice a caveat in the forecast that a band of high clouds streaming from SW or WSW may come over us and spoil the wind but stopping the inland valleys from heating weakening the local pressure gradient.
Usually when I mention clouds I am talking about low-level clouds that are often extremely difficult to forecast so I will use weasel words like “Upper-teens winds IF the clouds do not block heating in the inland valleys” Since these clouds form locally or nearby they often develop and move over the valleys after the forecast is published.
Whereas, when I am talking about the higher clouds of the subtropical jetstream I am much more confident about their impact on the winds. This is because these clouds are in a narrow band extending for hundreds of miles and their location later in the day is far easier to gauge.
This animation of the satellite imagery for Dec. 4, 2019, shows these clouds of the jet completely missing La Ventana and Los Barriles today. Hence the upper-teens or stronger winds.
Now, Thursday Dec. 5, those clouds are much closer to La Ventana making the mid to upper-teens forecast iffy since these clouds may kill the pressure gradient to the inland valleys.
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
With a bit of luck and a Cut-Off Low that behaves according to the models we see a 3-5 day El Norte blow for La Ventana and Los Barriles, Baja Sur.
This graphic for Saturday Nov. 30, 2019, shows the setup.
1. First, notice the huge storm over the mid-USA. This low-pressure system, that brought crazy winds, rain and snow to much of the west coast a few days ago is now tracking eastward.
2. Now note the second large storm out in the Pacific just off the west coast of the USA. Normally this storm would bring a day or two of stormy weather to the west coast and then move into the Great Basin displacing the El Norte wind creating high pressure located there. But far above this surface storm at ≈ 18,000 ft. is a near Cut-Off Low that is mostly disconnected from the upper winds that steer weather systems from west to east. This means this surface storm is likely to just loiter off the west coast for a few days.
3. Check out the small high pressure area in the Great Basin. This high pressure should cause El Norte winds today that augment the La Ventana local sea breezes today.
4. Notice the isobars extending from that high pressure. The closer those isobars are to each other the stronger the pressure gradient making for stronger winds.
4. This is creating the El Norte winds indicated in green in the Sea of Cortez. If that Cut-Off Low above storm#1 holds station while storm #2 departs eastward then the high pressure#3 can stay over the Great Basin and we see days of El Norte winds.
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the approaching low pressure storm to a Tropical Storm named Raynond.
Below is an animation of ECMWF model of the storm’s trajectory as well is a summary of all the latest model forecasts for trajectory and wind velocity.
Note that there is great variation since this is a part of the ocean with sparse data for the models to work with.
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
Here is yesterday’s blog about this storm
This blog tells why the storm forecast was so iffy earlier in the week
This animation show todays imagery of the storm at dawn Thursday, Nov. 14, 2019.
As you can see there is a hint of it developing a circular rotation but so far it looks very unlikely to become a hurricane. Still, there is significant rain and winds in this system. Some models have is just wobbling around south of Los Cabos and dying. But the ECMWF European models, which does a very good job on storms, has the unnamed storm coming close enough to Cabo to send significant rain to Baja’s East Cape especially in the mountains.
If this happens we could see GUSTY SE winds to the mid 20’s and significant rain especially towards Los Barriles. If you are camped in an arroyo be ready to move fast and follow the forecasts carefully. Remember that even if it does not rain on the coast heavy rain in the mountains can send a sudden mass of water down arroyos.
(INVEST name means this storm is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for the potential for future development. The NHC is a close partner of our company since we run the hurricane sensor network for them: https://weatherflow.com/professional-services/weather-networks/custom-designed-mesonets/the-weatherflow-hurricane-network/
by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com
If you were flying several hundred miles south of Los Cabos this morning your view would look much like my photo above.
There is a CHANCE this tropical depression 93E.INVEST, currently several hundred miles SSW of Baja will lunge towards Baja’s East Cape on the weekend. If this happens we could see GUSTY SE winds to the mid 20’s and significant rain especially towards Los Barriles.
If you are camped in an arroyo be ready to move fast and follow the forecasts carefully. Remember that even if it does not rain on the coast heavy rain in the mountains can send a sudden mass of water down arroyos.
(The “INVEST” name means this storm is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for the potential for future development.
WeatherFlow is a partner of the NHC and our Hurricane Network supports their life-saving mission.)
by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com
The last few days have seen barely a trace of El Norte winds over the Sea of Cortez. But El Sargento, La Ventana and to a lesser extent still can see mild local sea breezes if there is enough blue sky to heat the inland valleys.
Unfortunately, yesterday Nov. 13 saw heavy clouds over the area that stopped the sea breeze from developing. Today the same clouds mass is streaming from the SW with the subtropical jetstream. However the cloud band is more to the south. And the models suggest most of the band will move away from the La Ventana area later today. This would allow the local sea breezes to ramp up.
This satellite imagery shows those clouds as dawn sweeps over Baja.
