We need the Waddell winds to RIP!
by Mike Godsey, mike at iwindsurf.com
I am hoping this turns out to be one of my worst forecasts ever and the winds RIP the entire contest time. But…
As forecast the North Pacific High, after a long absence, is reforming and mid morning Waddell is already in the mid teens and slated to build into the 20’s.
The forecast for NW winds remains favorable for tomorrow and probably for the Thursday June 4 start of the contest.
So make your excuses and blast out of work for the contest the first day of the contest! Why….
Unfortunately, as you can see in the animation below, at this point it is looking like we see a mild marine surge sometime Friday which would mean weak southerly winds at Waddell.
This marine surge is triggered as the North Pacific High begins to push a ridge into far Northern California and surface NW wind turn more NNW. The same thing happens just aloft which deepens the Central Valley thermal low in the Redding area in the far north of the valley. This creates a South to North pressure gradient. Looking at the second video you can see how this low pressure (in color) dances around but overall it stays NORTH of the Bay Area encouraging southerly winds.
At the same time the North Pacific High’s surface NNW winds are not parallel to the coast so the winds are blocked from much of the coast. With weak wind along the coast
and a S. to N. pressure gradient a sliver of southerly wind and marine layer clouds creep up the coast trying to find a pathway to the Central Valley. They first find the Salinas Valley then the Peninsula’s Hwy. 92 gap and finally the massive gap of the Golden Gate. All of this means unfavorable southerly winds for Waddell arriving as early as Friday morning or as late as the afternoon. Either way it does not look good for the contest after the first or second day.
The exact timing of marine surge is really difficult more than 6 hour out but there is a good chance it will happen sometime Friday morning. And Saturday looks really poor with eddies and more weak southerly wind.