We suspected this might happen today. Our briefing last night we mentioned it might, and in the update this morning we increased our forecast numbers for Pt. Judith. Good thing we did!
In these post frontal days, we can often see a secondary trough that gets established along the central RI waters and extends clear up through Cape Cod Canal. So far today, our trough prediction is coming true for southern RI where the surge is just starting.
Here is the latest snapshot of the current winds overlaying the latest WRAMS run (which did finally catch the surge):
Here is the pressure map where you can see how the trough is developing and where the stronger winds are going to be for the next few hours (tighter the isobars, the stronger the winds):