The trough overhead, that can tend to cause wind suppressing complications, is currently in play this morning and I have drawn it’s likely position on top of our current wind observations.
Notice that sites N of Kite Island are tending to be westerly and those to the S of Kite Island are tending to be more southwesterly and slightly stronger. Check out the graphs for Hook and Kite Island. The trough started the day just to the W of all of our coastal sites and has broadened / shifted slightly offshore. Hence the SW directions to start and the now westerly directions with a drop off in speeds at N sites… especially Hook.
You can think of the trough as acting similar to a cold frontal boundary with westerlies behind the boundary and southwesterlies ahead of the boundary. For our prefrontal winds to really ramp up as the true cold front in the Great Lakes region increases gradient with Atlantic high pressure, we will need to see the trough shift back to our W.
S and Central sites (LBI and southward) are still favored over N sites for the strongest conditions and the best shot at an unimpeded prefrontal ramp up. Keep an eye on the amount of haze as you look at the horizon. Excessive haze can be a negative trend for winds to reach there full potential.
Keep an eye out for special updates as the potential for complications is on the high side.
Blog By Dave Breckenridge