West Coast Wind Blog: Anatomy of a forecast wipeout for Santa Barbara to Ventura.

by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com

Yesterday, Wed. August 14,  2019 I really blew the Isla Vista to Ledbetter forecast and Ventura went over the mid-teens forecast. True, I did warn of “much stronger winds than forecast if the Gaviota eddy died” But still… it was a crappy forecast. This an animated blog about what happened that day to blow
the.forecast.

Sometimes I blow a forecast for very complex reasons that I can understand in retrospect. Othertimes I am oblivious to what went wrong. But sometimes like yesterday the reasons are very clear but still impossible to forecast in advance.

The uncommon Gaviota eddy had spun up and at even 11:30 AM looked like it would really block the robust westerly winds from reaching the Isla Vista to Ledbetter to Ventura zone. This animation shows that I was wrong. And eddies, by their very nature, are very unpredictable beasts.