by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com

If you saw my 11:30 AM forecast you know I was not very bullish about the Isla Vista to Leadbetter winds:

“IF you see the eddy die by early afternoon there a slight chance of mid to upper-teens for Isla Vista but weaker Leadbetter.”

Eddies are always hard to forecast especially the time they fade and allow the North Pacific High’s surface winds to curve into the Isla Vista to Leadbetter to Ventura zone. Looking at this magnified wind graph for Leadbetter you can see the eddies SE winds that started predawn and continued SE to about 11:45.

This shift is the first sign of an eddy dying. And, unfortunately it occurred after I had published the forecast update.

Looking at the graph you can see that by 2 PM the winds were building nicely and by shortly after 3 PM they were from the west and in the upper-teens range I forecast.

Sadly, it that shift had happened before my 11:30 AM update I probably would have caught it and just forecast upper-teens rather than the limp-wristed “slight chance” qualifier.