Backcast: Pt. Isabel low to mid 20’s was clearly stronger than the mid to upper-teens I forecast! Why can’t we forecast such strong eddy winds reliably? Just take a look at this hourly animation of the eddy today August 18, 2019.
Notice how much it changes from hour to hour and remember that in reality, it is changing almost minute to minute.
To put it mildly it is like forecasting the exact track of a tornado. Simply not possible.